What would be the consequences if Finland joins Nato, but not Sweden, according to the Swedish Armed Forces?
The Swedish Armed Forces’ main task is to defend Sweden against an armed attack, single-handedly or together with others. If Finland joins Nato, but not Sweden, our assessment is that the conditions for the Swedish Armed Forces to defend Sweden together with others will be adversely affected.
It would have a negative impact on our international defence cooperation as we would no longer be Finland’s closest partner, with a common operational planning for the defence of our two countries. Also, it would likely entail a weakening of our international cooperation with other partners.
And if Finland joins Nato, but Sweden does not, then both Russia’s and Nato’s interest in using Swedish territory in an armed conflict would increase.
In an armed conflict with Russia, Nato would need to use Swedish territory in order to defend Finland and the Baltic States. Meanwhile, it would of course be in Russia’s interest to deny Nato access to Swedish territory.
If Sweden does not join Nato, we would have less say in Nato’s actions in Sweden, at the same time as Russia’s military strategic interest in our territory would soar.